The Science of Uncertainty (And How to Use it)
“The future is uncertain, but this uncertainty is at the very heart of human creativity.” ~ Ilya Prigogine, Belgian Chemist and Nobel Prize winner (1977).
Communications is all about humans—what will engage them, excite them, and motivate them to change. Tips, tricks, and strategies are all very well, but at COSYN, we’re always keen to delve deeper into why people behave the way they do. What are the mechanisms driving that behaviour, and how can we work with these natural phenomena to engage, activate, and ignite people?
What’s happening in our brains when we face unclarity or uncertainty?
Humans, like other animals, have a nervous system which has evolved to enable us to use our experiences to help us make predictions about the future, inform our decisions, and help us survive in an uncertain world. But what if we’re faced with a new situation where we can’t fall back on experiences or known quantities? Obviously, the fears that change and uncertainty can instil are there, firing up that fight or flight response. But is there also something more beneficial going on? A recent study from MIT was able to demonstrate that when conditions are uncertain other parts of our brain become active. And the more uncertainty we’re dealing with, the harder it has to work. Studies have shown that in situations considered as high uncertainty, behaviours and learning shift towards a policy of ‘explore’, and where situations are more certain, we tend to move towards one of ‘exploit’.
In other words, when we are unsure, we become primed to be able to find out what’s going on, and once confident in our knowledge, we are able to make the most of what we have discovered. So, with this in mind, how can we harness the power of uncertainty in organizations?
Uncertainty helps us to learn
Most of us would assume that as humans we crave stability in life, and while that might be so, a Yale university study on cognition seems to prove that uncertainty offers a golden chance to boost our learning capability. According to professor of neuroscience, psychiatry, and psychology Daeyeol Lee who ran the study, “When you enter a more novel and volatile environment, this might enhance the tendency for the brain to absorb more information”.
Uncertainty helps us connect
For many of us, when we feel uncertain, we will turn to our community for connection and reassurance. And those that can do this will undoubtably have an easier time of it. A dearth of studies following the impact of COVID-19 have borne out the importance of connectedness during times of uncertainty. But can uncertainty itself also provide an opportunity for greater connection? Research seems to say yes, suggesting that uncertainty heightens people's motivation to connect with each other and seek social support. A study published in the Journal of Experimental Social Psychology found that experiencing uncertainty also increased people's openness to alternative viewpoints and their willingness to engage in perspective-taking, offering more opportunities to find common ground or shared understanding. In short, by acknowledging and navigating uncertainty, individuals may be better positioned to build meaningful connections with others, even across differences.
Uncertainty helps us to make impactful change
Here, we can turn to Nils Plambeck of HEC Paris Business School and Northwestern University’s Klaus Weber and their pioneering study of 104 German chief executives facing the dramatic 2004 expansion of the EU to include many former communist countries. Some of these CEOs predicted it would bolster the success of their firms, while others that it would hurt their prospects. A third group, however, saw this development as potentially both positive and negative; in other words, they were uncertain about the outcome. When the researchers returned around 18 months later to see how the executives had fared, they were surprised that rather than uncertainty resulting in action paralysis, those CEOs who were unsure about the outcome had considered a wider number of responses, including more diverse perspectives in their decisions, and had taken more novel and bold actions. They realized, according to Weber, that “there is a reality out there that is not binary,”.
Want to see how you can make uncertainty work for you? We are certain we can help.